Since July 2019, the number of Bitcoin deposits on crypto exchanges has noticeably decreased. This trend suggests that most crypto investors prefer to keep their coins with them. By the way, according to the dynamics of the inputs and outputs of the crypt from exchanges, it is possible to track the general market dynamics in the niche quite accurately.
Nobody wants to sell bitcoins.
From July to January, the number of unique Bitcoin deposits at large trading floors decreased from 55 to 25 thousand. This was stated by Glassnode analysts, noting that the drop in input dynamics is due to the rollback of the BTC price from the annual maximum in the region of 14 thousand dollars. Experts also mentioned investors' expectations regarding the upcoming Bitcoin halving as one of the reasons for the cryptocurrency price appreciation.
Graph of the number of bitcoin transfers to the exchange (in orange). Source: Glassnode
Recall, another halving - that is, a decrease in the reward for the Bitcoin block from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC - tentatively takes place in early May 2020. New coins in circulation will appear half as much. Therefore, in accordance with the law of supply and demand, experts predict the growth of the cryptocurrency rate.
The unwillingness of the majority to transfer coins to exchanges indicates a high probability of a jump in BTC prices in the next few months. Miners are also unlikely to get rid of mined coins right now: according to some, it is better to wait until the halving and bet on Tuzemun.
Cryptocurrency investors are in the black.
Glassnode also calculated the average profitability of all Bitcoin coins on wallets. As it turned out, 76.05 percent of BTC purchased before this day can be sold as a plus. This value is changing all the time, however, historically it happened that it was above 50 percent for almost the entire time Bitcoin existed.
Exceptions were short periods in 2011, 2015, and 2019, when the cryptocurrency market was recovering from regular high-profile falls. The lowest value of “profitable bitcoins” at the level of 40.5 percent was recorded during the dump of the main cryptocurrency from $ 1,100 to $ 226.
The best period for investors lasted from the end of 2016 to December 2017. Recall that over these twelve months, Bitcoin managed to grow to its next historical maximum of 20 thousand dollars. In May and November 2017, the market situation was truly fantastic: more than 99 percent of the purchased bitcoins at that time could be sold in plus.
According to a recent study by Into The Block, the position of Bitcoin owners is not the best on the market. Holders of forks of the main cryptocurrency - Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin SV feel better than themselves. According to experts, 89 and 99 percent of the holders of the mentioned coins, respectively, can merge their savings and be in the black. Things are worse for fans of Cardano and Ethereum Classic. The lucky share among them is 60 and 51 percent, respectively.
